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Discussion Starter #41

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Discussion Starter #43
Ciao Shane, mate when yours is finished it will be worth a $Million. :grin2:
Ha Ha Ha. As long as I have it finished before they take my licence off me :wink2:
 

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Disappeared Friday, thought it may have a temporary thing but there you go if it’s sold....wow 150k...
 

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The subject of the initial post mentioned a car going from $15k to $105k over a few years and now another car to $150k. As I mentioned previously with so few steel step nose cars were manufactured GT Sprint, GT Veloce 1600 and GTJ 1300, couple this with their low survival rate which I think is about 2-3% means the surviving cars are rare. To achieve a good to excellent restored car, research and evidence are important. At times owners make errors in restoration which means their car is now a hybrid car (not factory original). Thus with an extremely limited pool of restored cars, I think we can expect very high sale prices for some models.

How much will the prices rise?
In January 1966 AUTOCAR the price of a 1966 GT Sprint was 1,529 Pounds Stirling and the price of a GTA was 2,356 Pounds Stirling: The 1966 Purchase Price Ratio (PPR) for a 1966 GT Sprint / GTA was 1,529/2,356 = 0.648 or ~65%. (prices don't include purchase tax)

As a hypothetical for restored car.
Could some steel stepnose cars get close to their 1966 Purchase Price Ratio (PPR) of~65% ?
If in 2019 you chose a selling price of $116k US =$170k AUD for a 100 point GT Sprint then, what value would you expect a GTA stradale with no race history to have? answer (116k/65)*100 ~$179k US ($262k AUD).
I doubt GTA stradales are selling for $179k US($262k AUD), then there is the potential for more price rises for the steel GT Sprint.
Let's do the calculation another way. Say a good GTA stradale with no race history is valued at $273k US ($400k AUD) then 65% of this is $177k US ($259k AUD).

What this is telling us is either there was a lag in the price rises of the steel step nose cars, which is now being corrected or the GTA were sold cheaply in 1966. The current price rises for 1966 GT Sprint /GT Veloce to GTA show the 2019 Purchase Price Ratio (PPR) ~(170/400)*100 ~42% is getting closer to the 1966 Purchase Price Ratio (PPR) ~ 65%
The GTA was mentioned as being a duel purpose sports car, by Pat Braden in his Market review article in Sports Car Market (~2000). Today as most GTAs have been relegated to museums and static displays, long gone are the days when the GTAs could be enjoyed on the road as mentioned by Pat.
Today I think the market still wants a classic duel purpose sports car and it has chosen the steel stepnose cars. So I won't be shocked when prices of $259k AUD or $177k US for a GT Sprint or GT Veloce pop up in the near future.

Or in economics terms: In 2019 the limited supply and high demand for steel step nose cars is driving prices up beyond expectations because of their 'duel purpose' sports car status. So basically we are seeing a market correction: which means the steel step nose cars were highly under valued in the past. The best restored steel step nose cars are appreciating at a faster rate than the GTAs, thus the steel step nose cars are outperforming the GTAs as an investment vehicle. This coupled with 'you know what you are getting' with steel step nose cars as there is rarely any identity issues with them and maybe less costly to repair and run compared to a GTA?
Regards Steve
 

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Here is part of my old post 11 months ago.
To clarify all in US Dollars for restored to factory correct.
The 1966 RHD GT Sprint recently sold for $150k AUD ~$102k US. It had some incorrect parts which would cost ~$3-5k to acquire so at $107k US and it did not have a leather interior so add another $10k so $117k US is in range for my prediction for the RHD GT 1966 $110k-140k US.

So like I said I won't be shocked when prices of $259k AUD or $177k US for a GT Sprint or GT Veloce pop up in the near future as I mentioned previously for the RHD GTV 1967 Version 2: $160k-200k US(FIA 5126: Group 2)

All prices assume you are just about to take delivery of a car December 2018 and how much I would expect to pay for an excellent condition, with all factory parts/options.

Stepnose 1600 steel cars top condition restored cars (in US dollars)

RHD GT 1963 $110,000-140,000
RHD GT 1964 $110,000-140,000
RHD GT 1965 $110,000-140,000
RHD GT 1966 $110,000-140,000
RHD GTV 1966 $130,000-160,000
RHD GTV 1967 Version 1: $140,000-170,000(FIA 5126: Group 1 early)
RHD GTV 1967 Version 2: $160,000-200,000(FIA 5126: Group 2)
RHD GTV 1967 Version 3: $100,000-110,000(FIA 5126: Group 1 late)
RHD GTV 1968 $100,000-110,000 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late)

LHD GT 1963 $90,000-110,000
LHD GT 1964 $90,000-110,000
LHD GT 1965 $100,000-120,000
LHD GT 1966 $100,000-120,000
LHD GTV 1965 $110,000-130,000
LHD GTV 1966 $110,000-130,000
LHD GTV 1967 Version 1: $110,000-130,000(FIA 5126: Group 1 early)
LHD GTV 1967 Version 2: $140,000-150,000(FIA 5126: Group 2)
LHD GTV 1967 Version 3: $90,000-110,000 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late)
LHD GTV 1968 $90,000-110,000 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late)
 

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You may well be right Steve, we can only wait and see. I personally don't think they will be going that high but I guess I would be ok with it as it makes my projects more viable. Better data is obviously needed though of the many private transactions that take place of the best cars (which happens with all Marques) Still find it amusing that you think there is a $60000USD hit for having higher rear arches on a RHD. Wasn't the high water mark a RHD GT Veloce high arch car from Classic Throttle Shop?...
 

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I could not find any prior sales of a high arch GT Veloce 1600 listed on their site. They do have a high arch GT Veloce 1600 at the moment for ~$100k AUD ($68k US). https://classicthrottleshop.com/1966-alfa-romeo-giulia-sprint-gt-veloce/
At ~68kUS I think their car is worth a look to confirm how close it is to a 100 point RHD GTV 1968 $100k-110k US (FIA 5126: Group 1 late)

I would consider the higher arch cars of lower value because of a few reasons.
1. Only the low arch GT Veloce 1600 cars had many similarities with the GTA
2. Later Group 2 low arch GT Veloce 1600 had similar options as the GTA in 1967, as well as many extra options for racing:
3. High arch car was in the past confused with the 1300 GTJ, so an image problem.
4. High arch car had solid ATE uprights. Which did not occur on the GTA, but were similar to those of the later GTJ 1300 in 1967/68
5. High arch car homologated to FIA 5126 Group 1 late in 1967 so may have suited larger tyres/wheels. I think it was too late in the season to capitilise on this. For 1967 as the low arch Group 2 cars came 3rd and 4th in the 1967 Gallaher 500 mile race source: https://www.uniquecarsandparts.com.au/bathurst_1967 and
freeze film at 4mins 6 sec to see 3rd place 60E car's deep arch on the same lap as the V8's of first and second place cars. Also see photo 67775 the 4th place car's deep arches http://autopics.com.au/search.php?search_query=gallaher 1967 60e&page=1&section=product In 1968 brought on the 1750 GTV as preferred Alfa Romeo race car for long distance events. In Australia one finished 4th against 327 v8's at Bathurst 1000 in 1968, source https://www.uniquecarsandparts.com.au/bathurst_1968. The 1750 GTV was on the same lap as the third place 327 V8 and one lap down on first and second place 327 V8's cars. "
"
Regards Steve

You may well be right Steve, we can only wait and see. I personally don't think they will be going that high but I guess I would be ok with it as it makes my projects more viable. Better data is obviously needed though of the many private transactions that take place of the best cars (which happens with all Marques) Still find it amusing that you think there is a $60000USD hit for having higher rear arches on a RHD. Wasn't the high water mark a RHD GT Veloce high arch car from Classic Throttle Shop?...
 

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Price not listed but someone on this board confirmed it went for around the 150k mark which is the highest price in Australia so far for a GT Veloce. https://classicthrottleshop.com/1967-alfa-romeo-giulia-sprint-gt-veloce/

As for all the differences well the arches are the only visible difference and most consider the others worthwhile upgrades which is why the factory did them. I’m sure you would prefer stronger suspension anchor points to the crossmember with 4 bolts instead of two.
 

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Sure $150k AUD is ~ $102 US Which is with in the bounds for a RHD GTV 1967 Version 3: $100k-110k US(FIA 5126: Group 1 late).
I'm just saying this is what I think the $ pecking order is as a result of similarities to the GTA for
RHD GTV 1966 $130,000-160,000
RHD GTV 1967 Version 1: $140,000-170,000(FIA 5126: Group 1 early)
RHD GTV 1967 Version 2: $160,000-200,000(FIA 5126: Group 2)
For 3rd and 4th podium placings in the 500 mile Gallaher race in 1967 for the Group 2 optioned cars.
RHD GTV 1967 Version 2: $160,000-200,000(FIA 5126: Group 2)

The negatives for cars that have similarities to GTJ1300, body and brakes.
RHD GTV 1967 Version 3: $100,000-110,000(FIA 5126: Group 1 late)
RHD GTV 1968 $100,000-110,000 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late)

I understand what you are saying with 'As for all the differences well the arches are the only visible difference and most consider the others worthwhile upgrades which is why the factory did them. I’m sure you would prefer stronger suspension anchor points to the crossmember with 4 bolts instead of two.'

Unfortunately the upgrades you mention came too late (FIA approved 1st November 1967) for RHD GTV 1967 Version 3 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late) to be used for racing in the 1967 Gallaher 500. Changes were from body number AR299601 g.d. onwards and AR251501 g.s onwards see page 16 and 17 of FIA 5126. So even if the Gallaher 500 mile race did not use FIA rules the cars from body number AR299601 onwards were not even in the country (Australia) prior 1st October 1967 for the 1967 Gallaher 500 mile race, see their build dates. https://www.classicalfaromeoregistry.com/type-105-giulias/gt

In my opinion I doubt the RHD GTV 1967 Version 3 (FIA 5126: Group 1 late) would have been able keep up with a fully optioned RHD GTV 1967 Version 2: (FIA 5126: Group 2) with all it's engine, LSD diff and extra ratios, extra gearbox ratios and wheel options who's setup could be optimised for a track like the Gallaher 500 mile race. http://www.speedwayandroadracehistory.com/uploads/8/6/7/1/8671826/published/1967-10-01.jpg?1554413611
Regards Steve

Price not listed but someone on this board confirmed it went for around the 150k mark which is the highest price in Australia so far for a GT Veloce. https://classicthrottleshop.com/1967-alfa-romeo-giulia-sprint-gt-veloce/

As for all the differences well the arches are the only visible difference and most consider the others worthwhile upgrades which is why the factory did them. I’m sure you would prefer stronger suspension anchor points to the crossmember with 4 bolts instead of two.
 

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Gallaher 500 cars? Once again this is all in your head only, Steve. Whatever your opinion about what the performance difference using all your theoretical FIA bla-bla-bla, it is all more nonsense. The cars for the Gallaher 500 & Bathurst 500 were stock production cars with no changes to diffs, gearboxes, wheels or anything else. Showroom stock & returned & re-sold in the floor & then sold as road cars.
It is true that the path of these cars has been on an upward spiral driven by financial speculators who keep on pushing the exaggerated rarity & quoting high theoretical values for both cars & parts for the past few years. Pounding away at it endlessly particularly for those models they themselves have quite a few examples of, bought cheaply in the the past.
This ploy has been used quite successfully by several people who constantly have cars & or parts for sale at high prices until people just get used to the big numbers & it becomes the normal.
The sad thing is while they may in the end make a big bundle of dollars for themselves, the true Average Joe enthusiast is pushed out of the market. Here in Melbourne at least, the main buyers of these high priced cars are mostly from neighboring Asian countries with huge economies, and a 105 Alfa is just a small-change token car in the Ferrari/Lambo garage. I could take you to about 6 locations around this city that fit this description.Then of course there are the 105s that get exported out......
I'm glad I already have the few that I want. and I have no intention of just selling for profits. I use my cars & share them with family & friends as well. Eventually most will stay in the family with my daughters, as they will never afford to buy a 105. They both drive manual Alfas every day, & own between them & their husbands, another six Alfas.
True enthusiasts, not speculators, deserve to own these cars. Unfortunately though you can't stop those who seek to
manipulate things for their own personal gain.
Vince.
 

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the true Average Joe enthusiast is pushed out of the market
and this not only for the cars - there has been a visible uptick in prices (or seller expectations thereof) for parts for early gt's since the cars started to venture into 6 figure territory
 

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Parts yes.. $2000 AUS for a secondhand grille for a gt sprint is the going price ( thats the slats without the centre heart!)
 

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Allot people thought these cars were fun to drive but this just delayed their maintenance and repairs so the car were just run into the ground, while some cars were left sitting under a tree for years or in a paddock or at the back of a workshop, you just could not even give them away! Some even found locked in a garage for decades. Allot were recycled, some of the good ones were cut up because of lack of panels from the factory to fix the rust or crashed cars or cars were scrapped to the metal recycles when prices were high for scrap steel.

Many Alfa Romeos including 105s have been exported in the past out of Australia to the US, UK, Europe and far and middle east over the last 20 years. Probably because some models were in limited supply in those parts of the world(scrapped to the metal recyclers) and Australians tended to under value small cars which included 105's. We can't stop Australian RHD 105's from being exported or other countries stopping the export of their LHD 105s or LHD Giulietta Ti's ! There are a few LHD 105s in Australia.

The 105 Renaissance (renewed popularity of 105s) occurred/took off I think about ~2011-12. Many individuals were caught by surprise a few years later say 2015 when restored cars started to sell for higher that expected prices as compared to some hybrid cars, something was definitely up! The hybrid car cultural theme continued and specialized into the final evolution to the GTA-R by Alfaholics.
Since more people wanted a restored 105 GT Sprint/ GT Veloce 1600, but unfortunately clear knowledge was not obvious until recently where you can now get a copy of the Certificate of origin in Italian for your car and access the Italian parts catalogue and the FIA Italian documents.

We are all lucky today we can enjoy the 105 Renaissance which is world wide, but it comes with a cost of NOS parts, reproduction parts and performance parts (plus freight costs/taxes) and the cost of skilled labour for mechanical work, engines, diffs, gearboxes and panel work and paint etc. which makes well sorted 105 cars expensive be it to original specs or even hybrid /modernized themes.

The fact that not many people restore 105 GT Sprint/ GT Veloce 1600 to sell means that excellent cars are not about in large numbers(low supply) and tend to be built to orders by specialist individuals/companies say with in 6-12 months, while the rest of us take 5+ years. The reality is you need a ~ $80-$110kAUD budget in 2019/2020 to restore the 105 GT/GT Veloce 1600 depending on the state you car is in. Project cars come onto the market in various conditions from $2.5k to $30kAUD.

To clarify your restoration costs will vary slightly from one car to the next depending on the state of your car. But the value of your restored car in the future will vary because of "limited supply and high demand for steel step nose cars is driving prices up beyond expectations because of their 'duel purpose' sports car status. So basically we are seeing a market correction: which means the steel step nose cars were highly under valued in the past. The best restored steel step nose cars are appreciating at a faster rate than the GTAs, thus the steel step nose cars are outperforming the GTAs as an investment vehicle."

At the end of the day it's your car and you need to both listen to what your body specialist is saying about your car's body and the mechanic is saying about your engine and gearbox etc. and ask questions if it's possible to achieve what you want (e.g. factory correct, or hybrid car or GTA replica/theme). The more you know the easier it should be to work with whom helps you. It's all a balancing act. Good luck to every one and their cars in the 105 Renaissance.
Regards Steve
 

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Hi Steve, well what can I say, er, I pretty much agree with all of your last post! All relevant (& only one mention of the term FIA, sorry just kidding).
Yes a lot of cars were left to deteriorate in years past, but the upshot of the 105 renaissance is that there are actually lot more 105s out of sheds etc & being or have been refurbished. I can't think of another time since perhaps the late 70s when so many have been around. I think 100k on labour & parts is not unheard of, but depending on your car starting point, & what level & specification and also your own level of ability to do some of the work, it doesn't have to go anywhere near that necessarily. This is where the car club enthusiast vs the buyer-of-restoration services is quite a large difference. They don't HAVE to be mega-dollar cars to achieve a very high standard, & a few, basically owner restored cars over here, have won concours etc against restoration-shop cars.
While it's nice to know if you or I do need to sell a car for whatever reason (old age, life support), it is worth good money,
I do think that some of the current values have been accelerated beyond the normal supply/demand/desirability inflation, by speculators in both cars & parts. I know here in Melbourne people who just buy up everything they can find and put 100/200/300+% on everything, sit back & let potential buyers sweat it out. The thing is that the number of cars & the price they want for the condition is so high it pushes up the market expectations more rapidly. This is where the real car enthusiasts end up losing out to people who might pay big $ for a 105 as consolation for the Ferrari they missed....(nothing against Ferrari owners as such!)
I know a parts place who just simply buys everything available just to take it out of the market, so they can charge almost whatever they like for minimal effort. I know it's free enterprise etc, but it really does make it hard for the average guy to afford, especially when they want $700 for an item when they bought a crate of 100 for less than $1000. There is SO much stuff they could never sell it in another entire lifetime....& their plan for when they retire (not too distant) :pay full price demanded or everything left goes to landfill. Yes, I know it's THEIR stuff, but it does make me pissed when so many people would love to put good use for a reasonable cost.
Fortunately I own my 105s & I own my house, both items which have been subject to accelerated unrealistic values in recent years by financial speculators & I pity the average people who are wanting to buy in now. It really shouldn't be that way if it were left to normal market forces.
Cheers,
Vince.
 
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