Do you believe in "global warming?" - Page 182 - Alfa Romeo Bulletin Board & Forums
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post #2716 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-10-2019, 09:43 PM
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On the physics side there is only one temperature history.
On the explanation side the amount of heat received at the Earth's surface forces glacial advances going back more than a million years ago. These have been relieved by the warming during an interglacial. The latter has been on for some 12,000 years and associated with the strongest solar activity in thousands of years.
Milankovitch in the 1920s came up with the theory that climate changes were driven by changes in orbital mechanics. That, in turn, changed the temperature trends recorded in the Earth's history.
Essentially, the last 40 years of data accumulation has confirmed this theory.
But the temp changes at the Earth have been greater than the changes in output from the sun.
Something has been missing.
Beginning some 10 years ago Svensmark began working on the theory that cosmic rays forced changed cloud cover. More clouds, more cool.
And from work in the lab, on measurements over weekly as well as much longer periods this theory is being confirmed.
The physics of climate understanding is on a renaissance.
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Last edited by Subtle; 07-11-2019 at 12:39 PM.
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post #2717 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 04:33 AM
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More misunderstanding and misrepresentation.

Climate change scientists absolutely predicted extreme weather events. Some areas will become more dry, while others will become more wet as the result of climate change. So droughts might be worse in Central Africa while floods more common in the Midwest U.S.. Changing the climate means changing many of the weather patterns that shape the climate in a specific region.
Change is not new. The reason it is called climate change just a way to allow for being all inclusive. No matter what happens, it can be said, see we were right.

If the science is so tight, then why are all of the predictions falling short?

Accurately measuring the average temperature is extremely difficult. Too many assumptions and adjustments are being made. The uniformity and standardization of temperature measurement is fiction. NASA cannot even measure year to year without adjustments.
Nobody is saying that change is new- they are saying the current change is unprecedented.

When you say predictions are falling short, which predictions are you referring to? I keep hearing about predictions made by politicians and media personalities- those aren’t scientists. Most of the examples of predictions falling short, aren’t- a cold winter in your area is irrelevant.

As to measurement- Temperature is a very easy thing to measure form an instrumentation standpoint. Hand waiving over “adjustments” should be explained.

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post #2718 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 04:46 AM
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Even if climate change is true....there is NOTHING 1 cuntry alone can do to have any effect.......
That is likely true, although the largest emitters like the U.S. and China may be big enough to have some impact. As I explained earlier, that is the reason for attempts at international cooperation.

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post #2719 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 05:10 AM
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Both sides of this argument truly understand it.
It's the other side that won't listen.
And we all agree that misrepresentation and misunderstood facts are being pushed at us every day from both sides.
Sure, but I am only responding to what is written here.

And I’m not taking about misrepresentation of facts- I’m taking about misrepresenting the argument of the other side.

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post #2720 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 10:34 AM
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Fact is, while we are arguing about climate change, China and the rest of the world are moving forward with the energy technology of the future. They are moving away from coal, we want to go back to it. We need to move forward not backwards.
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post #2721 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 06:48 PM
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Startling admission from AOC's Chief of Staff that they don't see the Green New Deal as a "climate thing" but rather a "change-the-entire-economy thing"

https://twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1149331587252797440

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post #2722 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 07:14 PM
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Startling admission from AOC's Chief of Staff that they don't see the Green New Deal as a "climate thing" but rather a "change-the-entire-economy thing"

https://twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1149331587252797440
Why do you care so much about a freshman congresswoman who is on the outs with the speaker from her own party?

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post #2723 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-11-2019, 07:17 PM
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AOC is psycho and has lost her mind along with the other 3 radical left wing congress women that hate the USA.
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post #2724 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 08:31 AM
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It seems the Left lives a lie. For libertarians this is OK. But it is not OK when the Left imposes it superstitions upon the public. In order to control everyone.
The one about modern society, carbon dioxide emissions and wild fires is another fantasy that is not working. So they twist the data.
From Tony Heller:

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/...aganda-danger/

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post #2725 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 08:43 AM
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AOC is psycho and has lost her mind along with the other 3 radical left wing congress women that hate the USA.
I think they love the USA, but they have a different vision for it than you do. But even assuming they hate the USA and want to burn it into the ground...

Why on earth do you care so much? They are freshman congresswomen with effectively no power to implement their policy ideas. You would basically never hear about them outside their districts if right wing media and those who repeat it weren't constantly ranting and raving about them.

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post #2726 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 08:47 AM
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It seems the Left lives a lie. For libertarians this is OK. But it is not OK when the Left imposes it superstitions upon the public. In order to control everyone.
The one about modern society, carbon dioxide emissions and wild fires is another fantasy that is not working. So they twist the data.
From Tony Heller:

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/...aganda-danger/
I've been asking the climate deniers for months to post peer reviewed research supporting their conclusions, or at least post peer-reviewed research they disagree with coupled with specific objections.

Alas, all I get are blogs (usually the same one over and over), editorials, and rants about politicians. Don't claim one side of a political divide is ignoring science if you are unwilling to engage in the science yourself.

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post #2727 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 08:48 AM
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Interglacial + status-anxiety + magical-thinking = warmism. Anti-porn cursades, anti-smoking, militant veganism, 55mph speed limits, gun-control, temperance and prohibition all spring from the same collective behavior pool.


I was going to write a more fulsome explanation but but, having done it several times already on this by now hoary thread, I decided this shortened version will suffice. History shows that True Believers gotta' believe and are not easily persuaded by counter arguments. Automobile-safety cursaders absolutely believed that the 55mph speed limit would reduce "carnage on our highways" when, in fact, deaths per 100k had been declining for decades. Still, the discourse continues to be fun. Sometimes, anyway.

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Last edited by 180OUT; 07-16-2019 at 08:54 AM.
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post #2728 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 08:58 AM
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Interglacial + status-anxiety + magical-thinking = warmism, anti-porn cursades, anti-smoking, militant veganism, 55mph speed limits, gun-control, temperance and prohibition . . .


I was going to write a more fulsome explanation but but, having done it several times already on this now hoary thread, I decided this shortened version will suffice. History shows that True Believers gotta' believe. Automobile-safety cursaders absolutely believed that the 55mph speed limit would reduce "carnage on our highways" when, in fact, deaths per 100k had been declining for decades. Still, the discourse continues to be fun.
You guys keep arguing against a hypothetical "true believer" who is not present in this thread, and seems mostly to be present in your own mind. I've only come to the following conclusions about climate change:

1) The climate has been warming over the course of the 20th and 21st century. You guys can't seem to decide whether this is true and a natural phenomenon or whether the data indicating it to be the case has been doctored. I've known enough scientists and read enough research to conclude the chance of a mass conspiracy on this front is effectively nil.

2) This warming is correlated with carbon emissions, but the exact causal relationship (or lack thereof) is difficult to determine. The scientific method has a difficult time with causality. This issue has been discussed since the 18th century enlightenment thinkers.

3) Whatever conclusions one draws about item 2 above, it's probably a good idea to move away from fossil fuels because a) there alternative energy sources that are technically superior due to better distribution or higher energy density, and b) reduced air pollution/smog independent from climate risk.


Like any conclusions about scientific fact, these are all subject to change if the weight of evidence indicates that the prior conclusions were flawed for whatever reason.

There are politicians and other public voices who are urging drastic action in response to climate change, but those are policy prescriptions, not scientific conclusions. Such prescriptions may or may not be related to scientific fact. Many on this thread don't like those politicians, and are wagging the dog by drawing scientific conclusions opposite from the ones the politicians claim to rely on.

Personally, whatever "solution" is primarily an engineering one. At the end of the day, 8 billion people are going to consume a lot of energy, and it has to come from somewhere. Any solution will have environmental impact, the task is generating the necessary energy while minimizing the negative externalities. No political wrangling required, but a lot of hard work and ingenuity!
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Last edited by nealric; 07-16-2019 at 09:02 AM.
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post #2729 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-16-2019, 09:18 AM
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Personally, whatever "solution" is primarily an engineering one.
On this we can agree 100%. Humans have always solved pressing problems by coming up with new technologies. Flint-napped spear-points replaced sharpened sticks at about the time climate change was making it harder to find game.

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post #2730 of 2918 (permalink) Old 07-17-2019, 04:20 PM
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