Do you believe in "global warming?" - Page 171 - Alfa Romeo Bulletin Board & Forums
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post #2551 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 09:39 AM
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Everyone here is just talking politics. I suppose science is just too hard to debate.
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post #2552 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 10:18 AM
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Everyone here is just talking politics. I suppose science is just too hard to debate.
We can debate science. I'll put up sane counsel of Judith Curry, Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, Roger Pielke Jr., and Freeman Dyson up against any five scientists who you think best frames the valid argument, as you see it.

We can also debate the effectiveness of the commonly-proposed "Green" solutions, as opposed to say, the increased use of nuclear power, in combating the theoretical existential threat of CO2.

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post #2553 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 12:29 PM
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Everyone here is just talking politics. I suppose science is just too hard to debate.

Discussing the veracity of predictions for events happening 12 or 100 years in the future is most decidedly not science. At best we're talking about political dogmas. At worst we're talking about magical thinking. Just claiming that something is scientific doesn't mean that it is.

Last time I checked prediction is still inversely proportionate to time.
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post #2554 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 01:43 PM
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We can debate science. I'll put up sane counsel of Judith Curry, Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, Roger Pielke Jr., and Freeman Dyson up against any five scientists who you think best frames the valid argument, as you see it.

We can also debate the effectiveness of the commonly-proposed "Green" solutions, as opposed to say, the increased use of nuclear power, in combating the theoretical existential threat of CO2.
Debating science has nothing to do with personalities, unless those people wish to post in this thread. Rather, the propositions at issue are two fold:

1) Whether the earth is, in the aggregate, warming
2) Whether that warming trend is fully or partially caused by human emissions of C02.

Rather than talk about personalities or policies, a healthy debate would present evidence for or against those two propositions. And such evidence should be supported by independent research (not just a critique of the research of others).

I have no beef with nuclear power. To the contrary, I think it's a tragedy that nuclear incidents have prevented further development of nuclear power. The anti-nuclear movement has ironically made nuclear power less safe, by preventing newer and safer designs from coming online and upping the cost of new plants.

I'm also not categorically anti fossil fuel. I make my livelihood in the fossil fuel industry and post in a car forum! It needs to be recognized that, global warming or no, all forms of energy generation have environmental and human impact. But energy is essential to humanity thriving. Even if we disagree on climate change, I think we can agree that a robust energy mix is important.

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post #2555 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by 180OUT View Post
Discussing the veracity of predictions for events happening 12 or 100 years in the future is most decidedly not science. At best we're talking about political dogmas. At worst we're talking about magical thinking. Just claiming that something is scientific doesn't mean that it is.

Last time I checked prediction is still inversely proportionate to time.
Not necessarily. For example, science can predict to a very high degree of confidence where a celestial body will be in 10, 100, or even 1,000 years time. There are a lot of complex variables even with something as seemingly simple as a planet's orbit, but most of them are known and can be modeled.

Of course, modeling of something as complex as climate is far from perfect. But that doesn't mean its a futile or non-scientific endeavor so long as it proceeds with the scientific method. There was a time when predicting the track of hurricanes more than a day or two out was essentially futile. As modeling has improved, it's now possible to have a very good idea of the track even 4-5 days out.

While weather isn't climate, I would look at climate change forecasts similarly to weather forecasts. They aren't useless, but just because a model predicts a certain amount of warming or sea level rise doesn't mean that it will happen in the amount or on the timeline the model predicted. But that also doesn't mean its wise to ignore them- just as you shouldn't ignore a model telling you a hurricane may be coming. Models are by their very nature probabilistic.

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post #2556 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-08-2019, 04:36 PM
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Debating science has nothing to do with personalities, unless those people wish to post in this thread. Rather, the propositions at issue are two fold:

1) Whether the earth is, in the aggregate, warming
2) Whether that warming trend is fully or partially caused by human emissions of C02.

Rather than talk about personalities or policies, a healthy debate would present evidence for or against those two propositions. And such evidence should be supported by independent research (not just a critique of the research of others).

I have no beef with nuclear power. To the contrary, I think it's a tragedy that nuclear incidents have prevented further development of nuclear power. The anti-nuclear movement has ironically made nuclear power less safe, by preventing newer and safer designs from coming online and upping the cost of new plants.

I'm also not categorically anti fossil fuel. I make my livelihood in the fossil fuel industry and post in a car forum! It needs to be recognized that, global warming or no, all forms of energy generation have environmental and human impact. But energy is essential to humanity thriving. Even if we disagree on climate change, I think we can agree that a robust energy mix is important.
What I'm suggesting has nothing to do with personalities, it has to do with weighing the arguments of people who know much more about the science than you or I, I am sure. If we were to discuss opposing positions on Quantum Physics, we'd have to argue the positions of people who actually understand Quantum Physics.

I think your propositions are completely inadequate. I agree the Earth is warming -- it has been since before the Industrial Revolution. I also assent to the possibility or even likelihood that we are accelerating the warming. So we agree so far as that gets us, I suppose. Beyond that you have questions about policy and the degree to which one accepts the model-based predictions (usually alarmist predictions).

Re science, good science is able to make predictions which are verifiable; almost all the predictions based on the warming models have a woeful record of verification/accuracy. It's really ridiculous with how every missed prediction there's a belated acknowledgment that some of the assumptions must have been wrong but "we'll get it right next time." Freeman Dyson's criticism of alarmism rests on two things: the inherent inaccuracy and unreliability of these models as predictive tools (for example, they either ignore or downplay feedback mechanisms), and the over valuation of the negative impact of increased CO2 on the environment. Rather, he maintains, the biosphere benefits greatly from increased CO2.

Also, re predictions, I think your use of orbital mechanics as an analogy, even a loose analogy, is really misplaced. I work at the place that built and flew the New Horizons spacecraft. We have posters on the wall from 2006 predicting the date and time of the 2015 Pluto flyby to the second, literally. I think the actual flyby was within a couple seconds of the predicted time. At any rate, we understand orbital mechanics with great precision and can predict intercepts with orbiting objects to an almost unbelievable accuracy. Climate models are NOTHING like that. I imagine only the Drake Equation is more sensitive to unknown variables.

I agree with your comments on nuclear power. It's been hobbled by policy, not what has been achievable technologically. Gen 4 nuclear power promises safe power. Hopefully, we can achieve the something like what was promised by the Integral Fast Reactor, before it was cancelled by Clinton at the behest of Hazel O'Leary and climate alarmist John Kerry (how's that for irony) based on specious and inaccurate arguments.
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post #2557 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nealric View Post
Debating science has nothing to do with personalities, unless those people wish to post in this thread. Rather, the propositions at issue are two fold:

1) Whether the earth is, in the aggregate, warming
2) Whether that warming trend is fully or partially caused by human emissions of C02.
That is fine in theory for Greek debate. But the discussion does not end there. With an engineering background, I'd add:
3) And if so, what are the significant deleterious impacts/consequences, and,
4) What can we PRACTICALLY do about it if actually needed, with emphasis on PRACTICALLY.

In fact the degree of uncertainty grows with each stage. You have to define a problem, the cause, and the effects before you can even discuss solutions and we can't even finalize facts on # 1 more than a fraction of a degree C.

Not to say we should not evaluate using SOUND science, and be vigilant, but the dire predictions of the world ending - even for sea slugs who don;t get the joke - is beyond the pale stupid. None yet have panned out but of course they were proffered by charlatans who made a fool of the practice. Ready, fire, aim. In it s current state, AGCC is as much cultural, sociological and political as anything else. And it needs to be studied and understood from those disciplines as well.

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post #2558 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by nealric View Post
Debating science has nothing to do with personalities, unless those people wish to post in this thread. Rather, the propositions at issue are two fold:

1) Whether the earth is, in the aggregate, warming
2) Whether that warming trend is fully or partially caused by human emissions of C02.
That is fine in theory for Greek debate. But the discussion does not end there. With an engineering background, I'd add:
3) And if so, what are the significant deleterious impacts/consequences, and,
4) What can we PRACTICALLY do about it if actually needed, with emphasis on PRACTICALLY.

In fact the degree of uncertainty grows with each stage. You have to define a problem, the cause, and the effects before you can even discuss solutions and we can't even finalize facts on # 1 1/2.

Not to say we should not evaluate using SOUND science, and be vigilant but the dire predictions of the world ending - even for sea slugs - is beyond the pale stupid. None have panned out but of course they were proffered by charlatans. Ready, fire, aim. In it s current state, AGCC is as much cultural, sociological and political as anything else. And it needs to be studied and understood from those disciplines as well.
I actually agree that this is primarily an engineering problem, and I said exactly that in this thread.

What I object to is the presentation of the chicken littles as if they are the only voices saying that AGW is happening and are the only ones presenting solutions.
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post #2559 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 04:40 PM
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Here in California it seems like global cooling. We have had the coldest and most rainy winter in many years. In May we rarely get rain, but now it is still in the forecast.... I won't comment on the science behind the claims on climate change. There is NOTHING any single nation can do to to alter world climate at this point in time.
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post #2560 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 05:13 PM
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Here in California it seems like global cooling. We have had the coldest and most rainy winter in many years. In May we rarely get rain, but now it is still in the forecast.... I won't comment on the science behind the claims on climate change. There is NOTHING any single nation can do to to alter world climate at this point in time.
The weather in any single location isn’t particularly relevant- especially when you are talking a single season. The Arctic had record warmth this winter even though it was cold in your particular location.

It’s true that a single country can’t fix anything by itself. Hence global diplomatic efforts like the Paris climate accords.

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post #2561 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 05:22 PM
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Human interface as predicate for any climate change is ********..

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post #2562 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 06:07 PM
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[QUOTE=nealric;8417140]The weather in any single location isnít particularly relevant- especially when you are talking a single season. The Arctic had record warmth this winter even though it was cold in your particular location.

Itís true that a single country canít fix anything by itself. Hence global diplomatic efforts like the Paris climate accords.[/QUOTE

I have traveled the world for 30 yrs in my line of work. I have been to places so polluted you cannot believe. The Paris Climate Accords are worthless with out China, India, and Indonesia taking part. the whole thing is a joke.....
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post #2563 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 06:24 PM
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[quote=Calguy 17;8417154]
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Originally Posted by nealric View Post
The weather in any single location isnít particularly relevant- especially when you are talking a single season. The Arctic had record warmth this winter even though it was cold in your particular location.

Itís true that a single country canít fix anything by itself. Hence global diplomatic efforts like the Paris climate accords.[/QUOTE

I have traveled the world for 30 yrs in my line of work. I have been to places so polluted you cannot believe. The Paris Climate Accords are worthless with out China, India, and Indonesia taking part. the whole thing is a joke.....
AH! New Delhi!!!

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post #2564 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-24-2019, 07:08 PM
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[QUOTE=Tom Frasca;8417166]
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Originally Posted by Calguy 17 View Post
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Originally Posted by nealric View Post
The weather in any single location isn’t particularly relevant- especially when you are talking a single season. The Arctic had record warmth this winter even though it was cold in your particular location.

It’s true that a single country can’t fix anything by itself. Hence global diplomatic efforts like the Paris climate accords.[/QUOTE

I have traveled the world for 30 yrs in my line of work. I have been to places so polluted you cannot believe. The Paris Climate Accords are worthless with out China, India, and Indonesia taking part. the whole thing is a joke.....
AH! New Delhi!!!
I agree that Paris wasn’t particularly effective, but the point is simply that there needs be some international cooperation. I’m not so inclined to fatalism.

That said, the solution will be an engineering one, with the economic incentives to adopt new technology being global.

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post #2565 of 2918 (permalink) Old 05-28-2019, 04:13 PM
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try to grasp this... daily weather is like you mood... climate is like you overall character.... not one and the same.. character is long turm of who you are... daily weather is like how mad you were, when you dropped your spanner in a place you can see it, but not get it out....learn the difference..
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