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This is really a non-question. The reality is that Alfa will not come anywhere near modern F1 because there is almost no financial benefit from doing so.
When Alfa produced the finest cars in the world and commanded the highest prices for their vehicles, their participation in grand prix racing was clearly justified. That's why Ferrari is there today, but Alfa Romeo is no longer the Alfa Romeo of pre-war days and they do not need to fly Italy's flag the way they did back in the late 40s and early 50s when they punished the world.
They also do not have the budgetary resources that Honda and Toyota have to develop new teams with new technology. BMW is in much the same position, but they have been in F1 for some time and are not developing a team from scratch the way Toyota is. Keep in mind that Toyota has a budget that's probably larger than Ferraris, but they still finish in the middle of the pack time after time. Alfa doesn't have Toyota's money by a long shot, so they don't have a chance to even compete with the middle of the pack if they tried to develop their own team with their own engine the way Toyota has.
If they were to race a team at the back of the grid with someone else's engines, they would look pathetic. Keep in mind that Alfa can still point to its gloried history. Putting an F1 car out there and watching it get pummelled would do nothing good for Alfa's corporate image, but would leave people noticing that they are not the company they used to be.
They can, however, race in other FIA series and come out looking pretty good. Duking it out with BMW is good for their image, even if they've been taking some loses lately.
Consider what Chevy did with its IRL program. They were getting beaten too often by Honda and Toyota. The exposure was bad, so they left IRL but kept racing in other series. And then consider what Jaguar did in F1, and the message to Alfa is pretty clear. Stay out of F1 or you'll be roadkill for sure.
There is talk of Penske and other teams stepping in to the mix sometime after 2007. That's when costs should come down, but keep in mind Penske is not a works team. Penske would be more like a Jordan/Midland or a Red Bull team. He'll be using someone else's engines in his team's cars and hoping for a few podiums. The works teams of Ferrari, McLaren/Mercedes and others need wins and they've got the budgets to get them. The reductions in costs allow more teams to enter F1 but it doesn't mean more teams are going to be at the front with Ferrari and the others.
So even with the reduced costs, I don't see Alfa jumping back into F1. There is just no clear benefit to doing so.
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